June 29, 2006

The Future Of Enterprise Software

Growth Will Slow, Prices Will Drop

by Andrew Bartels, John R. Rymer

with Merv Adrian, Kyle McNabb, Connie Moore, Katherine Brown

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

The enterprise software industry of the next five years will feature fewer large suppliers than ever, greater technical adaptability, baby steps toward the pricing flexibility most customers want but can't get today, and only modest rates of growth with declining prices. The magnitude of growth and structural change will be determined by clashes between the four horsemen of software commoditization — service-oriented architecture (SOA), open source, software-as-a-service (SaaS), and offshore development — and the four fortresses of market inertia — vendor concentration, intellectual property rights, installed bases, and brand loyalty. The four horsemen are changing how enterprise applications are created, sold, implemented, and supported; the four fortresses slow and limit these changes. The outcome of these clashes will vary by software category, but overall prices will decline and the industry overall will descend to historically low growth rates.

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