Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

In our September 24, 2008, review of the US IT market — as of the third quarter of 2008 — we predicted a distinct slowdown in growth for US business and government purchases of technology goods and services due to an assumed recession starting in the third quarter. Since then, an acute financial crisis has hit not only the US but also countries in Europe and Asia. Stock markets have fallen at a pace not seen since the 1929 stock market crash, short-term credit has dried up, Iceland has effectively been bankrupted, and bank failures have hit both the US and Europe — with ripple effects in other markets. Yet, we are still sticking to our forecast of a sharp slowdown in growth for US tech purchases with no downturn. Why? Our tech market forecast already presumes the recession that is actually happening. We also expect governments and central banks will take actions to stabilize financial markets and prevent an economic disaster. Still, with the financial crisis now spreading around the world, risks have grown that the US and other major countries will experience a longer and deeper recession than we had expected. If so, the tech market would see several quarters of declines in purchases, not just two or three quarters with little or no growth in late 2008 and the first half 2009.

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